[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 January 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Jan 14 10:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind varied between
340-380 km/s. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the
next 3 days. The total IMF strength peaked around 7 nT, currently
3 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 to +4 nT. The solar
wind is likely to become disturbed during 14-Jan due to the effects
of a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 11011211
Cocos Island 2 10101211
Darwin 3 21001212
Townsville 5 11012322
Learmonth 5 11112222
Alice Springs 3 11011211
Norfolk Island 1 01001---
Gingin 5 22012221
Camden 4 22111211
Canberra 2 11001210
Launceston 5 21112221
Hobart 4 11112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 12002110
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 13 33112225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1200 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region on 13-Jan. Conditions are likely to become unsettled during
14-Jan due to expected effects of a northern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
15 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
16 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
15 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
16 Jan -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 13 January
and is current for 14-16 Jan. MUFs were mildly to moderately
depressed across Australia on 13-Jan. Brief periods of sporadic-E
were observed at some locations. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 25900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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