[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 27 10:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Feb             28 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              77/16              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT 
day 26 February. No earthward directed CME was observed during 
this period. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from 
~~480 km/s to ~380 km/s during the UT day today. The IMF Bt stayed 
from 3 to 4 nT during most parts of the UT day, whereas IMF Bz 
varied mostly between +/-2 nT during the day. A negative polarity 
recurrent coronal hole may start strengthening the solar wind 
stream from 28 February for a few days. Very low levels of solar 
activity may be expected for the next 3 days (27 February to 
01 March) with a slight chance of C-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   11101011
      Learmonth            1   11101000
      Alice Springs        0   01000000
      Norfolk Island       0   00000001
      Culgoora             1   21001000
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   11110001
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                8   34222001
      Mawson               5   33211000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2321 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Feb     5    Quiet
28 Feb    12    Quiet to active
01 Mar    20    Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods 
                possible

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 26 February. Nearly similar levels 
of geomagnetic activity may be expected on 27 February and first 
half of 28 February. Activity is then expected to gradually increase 
to unsettled and active levels late on 28 February due to the 
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity 
recurrent coronal hole. This coronal hole effect may keep the 
geomagnetic activity enhanced to unsettled to active levels with 
the possibility of some minor storm periods on 1 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 26 February. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected 
on 27 and early parts of 28 February. Minor to mild MUF depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions are expected late on 28 February. 
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
are likely on 01 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Feb    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Feb    18    Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb    12    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10%
01 Mar     8    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian regions during UT day 26 February. Nearly similar 
HF conditions may be expected in Aus/NZ regions on 27 and early 
parts of 28 February. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions are expected late on 28 February. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely 
on 01 March in this region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   227000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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