[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 26 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 25 February. No earthward directed CME was observed during
this period. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline from
~~580 km/s to ~490 km/s during the UT day today. The IMF Bt stayed
close to 4 nT throughout the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly
between +/-3 nT during the day. Very low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next 3 days (26-28 February) with a slight
chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21211001
Cocos Island 2 21111001
Darwin 3 21211001
Townsville 4 12221011
Learmonth 4 22221001
Alice Springs 3 21221001
Norfolk Island 2 11101012
Culgoora 3 111-----
Gingin 3 21221001
Canberra 1 -1110001
Launceston 4 22221011
Hobart 2 11211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 22110000
Casey 15 45331112
Mawson 25 54442235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 4434 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 6 Quiet
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 25 February. Nearly similar levels
of geomagnetic activity may be expected over the following three
days (26 to 28 February).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 25 February with minor MUF depressions observed in the
high latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days (26 to 28 February).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 22 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian regions during UT day 25 February with minor MUF
depressions observed in the southern regions. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days (26 to 28 February).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 596 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 290000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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