[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 25 10:30:18 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              83/24              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 Feb. Region 2638 
(now at N16E13) produced a C1.1 flare that peaked at 0012 UT. 
Very low to low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next 3 UT days (25-27 Feb). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected 
in the available LASCO imagery. A corotating interaction region 
was observed in the solar wind up to 0400 UT, with the solar 
wind speed varying in the range 580-620 km/s and the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) fluctuating in the range Bt = 9-12 nT. The 
Bz component reached values of -7 nT. Then the IMF became steady, 
Bt = 4-6 nT, Bz = -4/+4 nT, the solar wind speed increased, reached 
its maximum value of 660 km/s at 0513 UT and then it was gradually 
decreasing, now at 560 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated during UT day 25 Feb.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33334212
      Cocos Island        10   33233211
      Darwin              12   33234212
      Townsville          11   33333212
      Learmonth           17   43335222
      Alice Springs       13   33334212
      Norfolk Island      10   33233212
      Culgoora            11   33333212
      Gingin              15   43334222
      Canberra             9   33233201
      Launceston          19   44344313
      Hobart              14   43343212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    18   32255311
      Casey               33   56633223
      Mawson              37   64444355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   1221 2422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    12    Unsettled
26 Feb     7    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Feb     7    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels across 
the Australian region and reached storm levels in the Antarctic 
region on UT day 24 Feb. The observed increase in geomagnetic 
activity is due to the coronal hole effect. During the next three 
UT days, 25-27 Feb, geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease 
as the coronal hole effects wane.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during 
UT day 25 Feb. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations 
in HF conditions may be expected during UT day 25 Feb due to 
increased geomagnetic activity observed during UT day 24 Feb.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
26 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb    18    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
the Australian regions during UT day 24 Feb. Minor to moderate 
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected 
in this region during UT day 25 Feb due to increased geomagnetic 
activity observed on 24 Feb.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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