[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 23 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 24 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 23 February. Region
2638 (N18E20) produced a C1.3 flare that peaked at 2053 UT. The
previously anticipated coronal hole effect has started. The solar
wind speed increased from ~400 to ~600 km/s during the UT day
today (23 February). The IMF Bt also increased from 6 nT to 10
nT through the UT day, whereas IMF Bz varied mostly between +/-4
nT by around 0800 UT and then varied mostly between +/-7 nT during
the rest of the day. This coronal hole effect is expected to
keep the solar wind stream stronger on 24 and 25 February. Very
low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days
(24-26 February) with a slight chance of C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 12222322
Cocos Island 5 11222221
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville 10 22223323
Learmonth 9 22223322
Alice Springs 8 11222323
Norfolk Island 6 12222222
Culgoora 8 12222323
Gingin 7 21222322
Canberra 5 11122212
Launceston 10 22223323
Hobart 8 12222323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 12223522
Casey 17 34433323
Mawson 19 33323435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3323 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 20 Mostly quiet to active, minor storm periods possible
25 Feb 12 Unsettled
26 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 23-24 Feb. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet
to unsettled levels across the Australian region on UT day 23
February. It was below the anticipations of active levels with
the possibility of some minor storm periods due to the coronal
hole effect, as Bz did not show sustained periods of sufficiently
negative values. The solar wind speed is still high around 600
km/s and expected to remain high on 24 and possibly 25 February.
If Bz shows sustained periods of negative enough values, geomagnetic
activity may rise up to active and possibly minor storm levels
on 24 February. Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually
decline over the following two days (25 and 26 February).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 23 February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected from 24 to 25 February due to
expected rises in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
26 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 22 February
and is current for 23-24 Feb. MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian regions during UT day 23
February. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected in this region from 24 to 25
February due to expected rises in geomagnetic activity levels
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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