[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Feb 28 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 80/20 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 27 February. A new region 2641 (now at N17E47) produced a
B9.3 flare that peaked at 2017 UT. Very low to low levels of
solar activity are expected for the next 3 UT days (28 Feb to
02 Mar). No earthward directed CME was observed in the available
LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decline
from ~380 km/s, reached its minimum value of ~340 km/s at 1450
UT, then it was gradually increasing, now at ~400 km/s. The IMF
Bt and its Bz component stayed in the ranges 3-7 nT and +4/-5
nT, respectively. During the next 24 h the solar wind speed is
expected to increase due to a negative polarity recurrent coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11121122
Cocos Island 4 11111122
Darwin 4 11121122
Townsville 6 11132122
Learmonth 6 00131133
Alice Springs 5 10121123
Norfolk Island 3 01121022
Culgoora 3 01121112
Gingin 6 10121233
Canberra 2 00121012
Launceston 6 01232122
Hobart 7 -2232112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 6 01242012
Casey 11 23422123
Mawson 18 23211264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 12 Unsettled to Active
01 Mar 20 Active to Minor Storm
02 Mar 19 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 27 February. Nearly similar levels
of geomagnetic activity are expected for the first half of 28
February. Activity is then expected to gradually increase to
unsettled and active levels late on 28 February due to the effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity recurrent
coronal hole. This coronal hole effect may keep the geomagnetic
activity enhanced to unsettled to active levels with the possibility
of minor storm periods on 1-2 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 27 February. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
for the first half of 28 February. Degradations in HF conditions
are expected late on 28 February due to increased geomagnetic
activity. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are likely on 1-2 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
01 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian regions during UT day 27 February. Nearly similar
HF conditions are expected in Aus/NZ regions for the first half
of 28 February. Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are possible late on 28 February. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are likely
during 01-02 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list