[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 19 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 18 February, with no notable flares. Very low levels of
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (19-21 February)
with a slight chance of C-class flares. The solar wind speeds
had further increased from ~475 km/s at the beginning of the
UT to ~575 km/s by the end of the UT day. This was in response
to the high speed streams emanating from a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt fluctuated between 3 nT and
10 nT. The Bz component varied between -8 nT and +8 nT. The coronal
hole effect is expected to keep the solar wind stream strengthened
for the next 24 hours (19 February) with possible weakening to
start from the 20 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 33222222
Cocos Island 7 32211231
Darwin 8 23222222
Townsville 10 33222223
Learmonth 10 33222232
Alice Springs 9 23222223
Norfolk Island 6 32221112
Culgoora 9 33221223
Gingin 9 33221232
Canberra 5 22211112
Launceston 11 33322223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 23132222
Casey 21 45532223
Mawson 36 65432264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 1344 2324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly between quiet and unsettled
levels across the Australian region on UT day 16 February. Active
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the high latitude regions.
The Australia DST index dipped to minimum of -39 nT at 18/0500
UT following a prolonged period southward IMF Bz. The disturbed
geomagnetic conditions were caused by high speed solar wind streams
associated with the coronal hole. The two day outlook (19-20
February) for geomagnetic conditions to be mostly at unsettled
levels and occasionally reaching active levels as the high speed
streams are expected to persist for a while. The geomagnetic
conditions are expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels from
21 February as the coronal effects begin to wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the
mid- and low-latitude regions on UT day 18 February. Minor depressions
were observed in the high-latitude regions. Similar MUF levels
are expected for today 19 February as the ionosphere gradually
recovers from the disturbed conditions associated with the coronal
hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 4 Near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 17-19 Feb. MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted
levels with sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian
regions during UT day 18 February. Over the next two days (19-20
February), similar MUF levels are expected as the ionosphere
gradually recovers from disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated
with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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