[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Feb 20 10:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the 
UT day 19 February, with no notable flares. Very low levels of 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days (20-23 February) 
with a slight chance of C-class flares. A filament eruption from 
near the solar centre N14E02 was observed to begin at around 
19/0511 UT. However, it was not clear from the satellite imagery 
if this event had triggered an earth-directed CME. The solar 
wind speeds peaked to ~625 km/s at around 19/0300 and thereafter 
had exhibited a slow declining trend. This may be indicative 
of the beginning of the waning effects of the coronal hole. The 
solar wind speed at the time of writing was 550 km/s (19/2300 
UT). The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT throughout the UT day. The 
Bz component varied between -5 nT and +5 nT. The two outlook 
(20-21 February) is for the solar winds to continue to trend 
toward nominal levels as the coronal hole effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212210
      Cocos Island         4   22111210
      Darwin               5   22212211
      Townsville           4   22212110
      Learmonth            7   22213221
      Alice Springs        5   22212210
      Norfolk Island       4   22111120
      Culgoora             5   22212210
      Gingin               8   32213221
      Canberra             3   22102110
      Launceston           8   3221322-
      Hobart               5   22212210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     6   22123220
      Casey               20   43432352
      Mawson              30   56432352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              56   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   3421 1133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic activity were mostly between quiet and unsettled 
levels across the Australian region on UT day 19 February. Active 
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the high latitude regions. 
The Australia DST index dipped to minimum of -37 nT at 19/0500 
UT. The disturbed geomagnetic conditions were caused by high 
speed solar wind streams associated with the coronal hole. The 
two day outlook (20-21 February) for geomagnetic conditions to 
be mostly between quiet and unsettled levels as the coronal hole 
effects wane. On 22 February, unsettled to active conditions 
are expected as another recurrent equatorial coronal hole approaches 
geoeffective location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the 
mid- and low-latitude regions on UT day 19 February. Minor depressions 
were observed in the high-latitude regions. Similar MUF levels 
are expected for today 20 February.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Feb    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      18
Mar      16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values
21 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values
22 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted levels with 
sporadic minor depressions scattered across the Australian regions 
during UT day 19 February. Over the next two days (20-21 February), 
similar MUF levels are expected as the ionosphere gradually recovers 
from disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   370000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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