[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 February 17 issued 2333 UT on 17 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 18 10:33:10 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 77/16 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 17 February. Solar wind speed increased gradually from ~440
km/s at the beginning of the UT day to ~540 km/s by mid day and
decreased to 480 km/s by the time of this report (23:30 UT, 17
February). These enhancements in the solar wind speed are due
to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. The north-south component of IMF, Bz varied mostly
between +/-8 nT and Bt varied between 8 and 11 nT during most
parts of UT day 17 February. This coronal hole effect is expected
to keep the solar wind stream strengthened for the next 2 days
(18 and 19 February) with possible weakening to start from the
3rd day (20 February). Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next 3 days (18-20 February) with a slight chance
of C-class flares.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
with Isolated Active Periods
Estimated Indices 17 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 23333322
Cocos Island 10 23332321
Darwin 12 23333322
Townsville 12 23333322
Learmonth 15 23333433
Alice Springs 12 23333322
Norfolk Island 10 23332222
Culgoora 11 23332322
Gingin 14 22333433
Canberra 9 13232322
Launceston 16 23343432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Feb :
Macquarie Island 20 23454421
Casey 25 46433332
Mawson 22 35433433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1220 3421
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Feb 12 Quiet to active
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled, some active periods possible
20 Feb 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Due to the anticipated effect of the high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole, geomagnetic activity
showed enhancements to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods on UT day 17 February. Due to the effect of this coronal
hole, geomagnetic activity may show enhancements up to active
levels on 18 and 19 February with the possibility of gradual
decrease in the activity through the UT day 20 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
19 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values with slight
enhancements in the mid- and low-latitude regions on UT day 17
February. Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude
regions. Over the next two days (18-19 February), the high latitude
depressions are expected to extend into the mid latitude regions
as disturbed geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal
hole persist. HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly
predicted frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Feb 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
19 Feb 18 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
20 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 17-19 Feb. MUFs were near monthly predicted
values with slight enhancements in the mid- and low-latitude
regions of Australia on UT day 17 February. Minor depressions
were observed in the high-latitude Australian regions. Over the
next two days (18-19 February), the high latitude depressions
are expected to extend into the mid latitude regions as disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole persist.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list