[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 17 10:30:39 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels during the
UT day 16 February, with no flares. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 days (17-19
February) with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery on UT day 16 February.
The solar wind speeds increased gradually from the nominal levels
of ~300 km/s at the beginning of the UT to ~450 km/s by the end
of the UT day. This was in response to the high speed streams
emanating from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole now
taking geoeffective location on the solar disk. The IMF Bt fluctuated
between 4 nT and 11 nT. The Bz component varied between -8 nT
and +6 nT, with a significant southward component between 16/1200
UT and 16/1400 UT. The two day outlook (17-18 February) is for
the solar winds to enhance further since the high speed streams
from the coronal is expected to persist for few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 12213331
Cocos Island 8 12213331
Darwin 6 12202231
Townsville 8 12213331
Learmonth 9 12213332
Alice Springs 6 02203231
Norfolk Island 7 12203321
Culgoora 7 02203331
Gingin 7 11213232
Canberra 5 02203220
Launceston 11 02314332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 18 02205620
Casey 11 34312222
Mawson 20 23324435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 16 Active
18 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 17 Feb only. Magnetic activity were mostly
between quiet and unsettled levels across the Australian region
on UT day 16 February. Active geomagnetic conditions were observed
in high latitude regions. The Australia DST index dipped to minimum
of -34 nT at 16/1500 UT following the period of significant southward
IMF Bz. The unsettled conditions were caused by the arrival of
co-rotating interaction region associated with the coronal hole.
The outlook for today 17 February for geomagnetic conditions
to be mostly between unsettled and active levels, occasionally
reaching minor storm levels associated with the high speed solar
wind streams emanating from the coronal hole. There is some chance
that auroras may be visible on the local night of 17 February
in Tasmania and possibly from the coastline of Victoria.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs were observed on UT
day 16 February in the high southern hemisphere regions. Other
regions were near monthly predicted levels. Slightly poor HF
conditions are expected today, 17 February, with the high latitude
depressions possibly extending into the mid-latitude regions.
This is response to the current disturbed conditions associated
with the coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 18
Mar 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb -3 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Feb -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Feb -3 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 16 February
and is current for 17-19 Feb. MUFs were near monthly predicted
values in the mid- and low-latitude regions of Australia on UT
day 16 February. Minor depressions were observed in the high-latitude
Australian regions during the latter part of the UT day. Over
the next two days (17-18 February), the high latitude depressions
are expected to extend into the mid latitude regions as disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole persist.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 17900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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