[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Feb 3 10:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during 
the UT day 02 Feb. Very Low solar activity is expected for the 
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The 
solar wind speed remained elevated over the UT day 02 Feb but 
gradually declined as the influence of a negative polarity coronal 
hole decreased, it is currently around 620km/s. The IMF Bt was 
steady near 5 nT over the UT day. The Bz component varied between 
+/- 5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to trend 
toward nominal levels over the next few days as the coronal hole 
effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23323233
      Cocos Island         9   2322----
      Darwin               8   2321----
      Townsville          13   23324233
      Alice Springs       13   3332----
      Norfolk Island      10   23223232
      Gingin              13   3332----
      Camden              13   23323333
      Canberra            11   23223233
      Launceston          18   34333343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    19   3442----
      Casey               45   4564----
      Mawson              37   5445----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin             118   (Major storm)
      Canberra           120   (Major storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   4343 4534     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb    15    Quit to Unsettled with possible Active periods
04 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties 
with acquiring data from our network. Magnetic conditions were 
Quiet to Unsettled in the Australian region on 02 Feb with some 
Active periods. This is based on limited data mostly from mid 
latitude regions. Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
and occasionally may reach Active levels over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Slight MUF depressions observed today 02 Feb. Ionospheric 
recovery expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      0
Feb      20
Mar      19

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Feb    10    Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for the Australian region over 
the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic-E were and spread F observed 
at times in some locations. Gradual improvement in ionospheric 
support is expected over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 680 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   577000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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