[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 February 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Feb 2 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during
the UT day 01 Feb. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed ranged between 700-750 Km/s over the UT day
in response to high speed streams emanating from a relatively
large trans equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt strength varied
in the ranged of 5-7 nT and its north-south component Bz varied
between +/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at
elevated levels during the next two days, 02-03 Feb under the
continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream from the
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 20 33334533
Cocos Island 16 32223533
Darwin 15 22334423
Townsville 20 33334533
Alice Springs 19 23334533
Norfolk Island 17 33323443
Gingin 27 33334644
Camden 20 33334533
Canberra 14 23323433
Launceston 25 34434534
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 35 33456623
Casey 44 47544534
Mawson 67 66555557
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 61 (Active)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 2224 2445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 25 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor Storm
periods.
03 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The Earth is still under the influence of strong solar
wind streams from a negative polarity coronal hole. Magnetic
activity reached Minor Storm levels across the Australian region
and Major Storm levels in the Antarctic region on UT day 01 Feb.
The Australian Dst dipped to a minimum of -55 nT at ~ 0100UT
and -60 at~2200UT. Strong solar wind speeds are expected to continue
over the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
range from Unsettled to Active levels and occasionally may reach
Minor Storm levels in the high latitude regions over the next
24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
03 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
04 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected over the next two
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 0
Feb 20
Mar 19
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb -20 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Feb -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 1 February
and is current for 1-2 Feb. Depressed MUFs observed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 24 hours. Variable
ionospheric support for Equatorial regions. Periods of sporadic-E
were observed in many locations. On 02-03 Feb depressed MUFs
are expected as a result of increased in geomagnetic activity.
HF users are advised to use lower than the monthly predicted
frequencies.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 566000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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