[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 17 issued 2332 UT on 31 Jan 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 1 10:32:27 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: The solar activity remained at Very Low levels during
the UT day 31 Jan. Very Low solar activity is expected for the
next three days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery. The
solar wind parameters were enhanced in response to high speed
streams emanating from a relatively large transequatorial coronal
hole. A significant increase in the solar wind speed was observed,
its maximum value was 800km/s ~2040UT. The IMF Bt strength increased
to to 17 nT and its north-south component Bz varied between +/-10
nT with notable southward excursions between 1300-1600UT(up to
-12 at 1440UT). The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
during the next two days, 01-02 Feb,under the influence of a
high speed solar wind stream from the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Active.
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 22333333
Cocos Island 12 22332333
Darwin 13 22333333
Townsville 14 22333433
Alice Springs 13 22333333
Norfolk Island 13 22333333
Gingin 20 32334444
Camden 16 22433433
Canberra 12 11333333
Launceston 21 23444443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 30 22355643
Casey 30 45544344
Mawson 74 44444867
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 47 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1001 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 20 Unsettled to Active with possible Minor Storm
levels.
02 Feb 15 Quiet to Active.
03 Feb 12 Quiet to Unsettled.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 30 January and
is current for 31 Jan to 1 Feb. The Earth is currently under
the influence of very strong solar wind streams from a large
coronal hole. Magnetic activity was Quiet to Active across the
Australian region and reached Major Storm levels in the Antarctic
region on UT day 31 Jan. Solar winds associated with the coronal
hole are still at elevated levels. Under such conditions,a prolonged
southward IMF Bz could lead to more disturbed geomagnetic conditions.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to range mostly from Unsettled
to Active levels and occasionally may reach Minor Storm levels
in the high latitude regions over the next two days(01-02 Feb).
Auroras may be visible on the local nights of 01 Feb in Tasmania.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
03 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected over the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 2
Jan 21
Feb 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Feb -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the last
24 hours for AUS/NZ regions with both near predicted monthly
values and depressions. Depressed MUFs for AUS/NZ regions for
01-02 Feb with disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 77000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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