[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 30 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 29 December,
with only one weak B-class flare (B1.1). There is currently one
numbered solar region on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W75)
and it remains relatively quiet and stable. Very low levels of
solar flare activity is expected for the next three days (30
Dec - 1 Jan), with a weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward
directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery
on UT day 29 Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 29 December
was near the nominal level, trending between 350 km/s and 400
km/s. During the UT day 29 December, the IMF Bt was between 3
nT and 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -3 nT
and +3 nT. The two day outlook (30 - 31 Dec) is for the solar
wind speed to remain mostly near the background level. From early
1 Jan or thereabout, the solar wind is expected to enhance again
as a recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole reaches geoeffective location on the solar disk. During
the previous rotation this coronal hole produced winds in excess
of 500 km/s for three consecutive days at earth. Similar effects
are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21011111
Cocos Island 1 10011110
Darwin 3 11012111
Townsville 5 21122121
Learmonth 3 20011121
Alice Springs 3 10022111
Culgoora 2 10011121
Gingin 3 20111121
Camden 5 32121111
Canberra 1 10011110
Launceston 4 21112121
Hobart 3 21011111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10000110
Casey 10 33322231
Mawson 16 33122254
Davis 11 22222251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0111 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 6 Quiet
31 Dec 12 Unsettled
01 Jan 25 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 29 December. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected today, 30 Dec. On 31 Dec, magnetic
conditions could reach unsettled to active levels due to the
corotation interaction region (CIR) effect associated with a
recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere coronal hole
soon reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk. On 1 Jan,
active to minor storm conditions are possible associated with
high speed stream from the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected
over most regions for today, 30 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 29 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian
ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (30-31 Dec) is for MUFs
to be mostly near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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