[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 31 10:30:25 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 30 December, 
with no flares. There is currently one numbered solar region 
on the visible disk, region 2692, which will soon rotate to the 
far side of the sun. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
is expected for the next three days (31 Dec - 2 Jan), with a 
very weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 30 
Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 30 December was near 
the nominal level of 375 km/s. During the UT day 30 December, 
the IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated 
between -3 nT and +2 nT. The outlook for most part of today (31 
Dec) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly near the background 
level. From late 31 Dec or thereabout, the solar wind is expected 
to enhance again as a recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere 
coronal hole reaches geoeffective location on the solar disk. 
During the previous rotation this coronal hole produced winds 
in excess of 500 km/s for three consecutive days at earth. Similar 
effects are expected in this rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Cocos Island         2   11110101
      Darwin               2   11101111
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            3   10111112
      Alice Springs        2   10101111
      Gingin               2   10101112
      Camden               3   11211111
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Launceston           3   11211111
      Hobart               2   11101101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001100
      Casey               13   33521222
      Mawson              15   23212245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan    25    Active
02 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 30 December. Today 31 
Dec, magnetic conditions could reach unsettled to active levels 
due to the corotation interaction region (CIR) effect associated 
with a recurrent positive polarity Northern Hemisphere coronal 
hole soon reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk. On 
1 Jan, active to minor storm conditions are possible associated 
with high speed stream from the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected 
over most regions for today, 31 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Dec    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan   -15    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan   -20    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs 
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 30 December. Incidence 
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian 
ionosonde sites. The outlook for today (31 Dec) is for MUFs to 
be mostly near monthly predicted levels. Minor to moderate MUF 
depression are expected on 01-02 Jan in response to the forecasted 
active magnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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