[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 29 10:30:51 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 28 December,
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W61) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (29- 31 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 28 Dec. The solar wind
speed during UT day 28 December declined from 450 km/s at the
beginning of the UT day to nearly 375 km/s at the time of writing
this report (28/2300 UT). This observed declining trend in the
solar wind speed is in response to the waning effects of a negative
polarity Southern Hemisphere coronal hole. During the UT day
28 December, the IMF Bt was between 3 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -3 nT and +3 nT. The two day outlook
(29 - 30 Dec) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly near
the background level as the effects of the current coronal hole
gradually wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11112212
Cocos Island 2 10011111
Darwin 4 11112212
Townsville 4 11112212
Learmonth 5 11112312
Alice Springs 3 11102202
Culgoora 4 11112212
Gingin 4 11111212
Camden 5 12112212
Canberra 2 01001201
Launceston 6 12112312
Hobart 4 12111212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01111201
Casey 19 45423223
Mawson 12 23322324
Davis 15 24333224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2211 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 6 Quiet
30 Dec 6 Quiet
31 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 28 December. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on 29 and 30 Dec. On 31 Dec magnetic
conditions could reach unsettled to active levels as another
recurrent low latitude Northern Hemisphere coronal hole reaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near monthly predicted HF conditions are expected
over most regions for today, 29 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 28 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over most Australian
ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (29-30 Dec) is for MUFs
to be mostly near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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