[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 27 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 28 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 27 December,
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W49) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (28- 30 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 27 Dec. The solar wind
speed during UT day 27 December trended between 400 km/s and
480 km/s. These moderately elevated solar winds are caused by
a negative polarity Southern Hemisphere coronal hole. During
the UT day 27 December, the IMF Bt was between 4 nT and 10 nT.
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT. The
outlook for today 28 Dec is for the solar wind speed to remain
mostly near the moderately elevated level as the effects of the
coronal hole gradually wanes. The solar wind are expected to
drop to background level by 29 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Cocos Island 4 11111222
Darwin 7 22212322
Townsville 7 22212322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 7 22212322
Culgoora 8 12213322
Gingin 10 22223323
Camden 12 32233332
Canberra 5 12112311
Launceston 10 23223322
Hobart 10 23223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 02122311
Casey 28 36533433
Mawson 17 34233343
Davis 19 34433433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3302 1143
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec 6 Quiet
30 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels to unsettled
level across the Australian region during the UT day, 27 December.
The unsettled conditions are due to moderately elevated solar
winds emanating from the Southern Hemisphere coronal hole. The
outlook for today Dec 28 is for the magnetic conditions to be
mostly at quiet levels and occasionally may reach unsettled levels
as the effects of the coronal is expected to persist of one more
day. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 29 and 30 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are possible today, 28 Dec, mainly for the Southern high latitude
regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 27 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were observed over most Australian ionosonde
stations. The two day outlook (28-29 Dec) is for MUFs to be mostly
near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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