[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 27 10:30:26 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 26 December, 
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar regions 
on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W35) and it remains relatively 
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is 
expected for the next three days (27- 29 Dec), with a weak chance 
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in 
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 26 Dec. The solar wind 
speed during UT day 26 December trended between 450 km/s and 
490 km/s. These moderately elevated solar winds are caused by 
a negative polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole. During 
the UT day 26 December, the IMF Bt was between 3 nT and 7 nT. 
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT. The 
outlook for the next two days (27-28 Dec) is for the solar wind 
speed to remain mostly near the moderately elevated level as 
the effects of the coronal hole gradually wanes. The solar wind 
are expected to drop to background level by 29 Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122222
      Townsville           6   22122222
      Learmonth            6   22122222
      Culgoora             5   12112122
      Camden              11   22333232
      Canberra             7   14-11122
      Launceston           6   22122222
      Hobart               5   12122221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     7   131231--
      Casey               19   354322--
      Mawson              21   354332--
      Davis               25   34433263

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3023 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Dec     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels and 
at times reached unsettled level across the Australian region 
during the UT day, 26 December. For UT day 27-28 December, the 
magnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels and 
occasionally may reach unsettled levels. The forecasted unsettled 
conditions are due moderately elevated solar winds associated 
with coronal hole, which is expected to persist for few more 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
are possible today, 26 Dec, mainly for the southern high latitude 
regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Dec    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Dec     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs 
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 26 December. Incidence 
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian 
regions. The two day outlook (27-28 Dec) is for MUFs to be between 
slightly depressed and near monthly predicted levels as the ionosphere 
slowly recovers from the disturbed conditions associated with 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   210000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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