[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 26 10:30:23 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Dec             27 Dec             28 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 25 December, 
with only one weak B-class flare (B1.6). There is currently one 
numbered solar regions on the visible disk, region 2692 (N17W22) 
and it remains relatively quiet and stable. Very low levels of 
solar flare activity is expected for the next three days (26- 
28 Dec), with a weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 
25 Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 25 December declined 
from ~550 km/s at beginning of the UT day to 470 km/s at the 
time of writing this report (25/2300 UT). This is due to waning 
effects of the negative polarity coronal hole. During the UT 
day 25 December, the IMF Bt was mostly steady near 6 nT. The 
Bz component of IMF was mostly weakly southward throughout the 
last 24 hours. The outlook for the next two days (26-27 Dec) 
is for the solar wind speed to decline further and reach background 
levels as the effects of the coronal hole continues to wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11221222
      Cocos Island         4   21121120
      Darwin               5   11221122
      Townsville           6   21221222
      Alice Springs        5   11221222
      Culgoora             5   11221222
      Gingin               6   21121231
      Canberra             4   11220121
      Launceston           6   21221222
      Hobart               5   11221222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     5   11221311
      Casey               15   34333233
      Mawson              25   43233364
      Davis               16   43333242

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   1112 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec     5    Quiet
28 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 25 December. For UT 
day 26-27 December, the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at quiet levels and occasionally may reach unsettled levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
are possible today, 26 Dec, mainly for the southern hemisphere.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Dec   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 24 December 
and is current for 25-26 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions 
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 25 December. Incidence 
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian 
regions. The two day outlook (26-27 Dec) is for MUFs to be between 
slightly depressed and near monthly predicted levels as the ionosphere 
slowly recovers from the disturbed conditions associated with 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:   12.4 p/cc  Temp:   198000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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