[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 15 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 14 December,
with only few weak B-class flares. There is currently one numbered
solar regions on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04W10) and it
remains relatively quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar
flare activity is expected for the next three days (15- 17 Dec),
with a weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 14
Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 14 December declined
from ~450 km/s at beginning of the UT day to 370 km/s at the
time of writing this report (14/2300 UT). This is due to waning
effects of the coronal hole. During the UT day 14 December, the
IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT. The Bz component of IMF was mostly
weakly northward throughout the last 24 hours. The outlook for
today (15 Dec) for the solar wind speed to decline further to
reach background levels as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
>From late UT day 16 Dec or thereabout, the solar wind speed is
expected to increase again as another recurrent equatorial coronal
reaches effective location on the solar disk. The STEREO satellite
observed solar winds in excess of 550 km/s associated with the
approaching coronal hole. Similar solar wind intensity levels
are expected to occur at earth when it is under the influence
of the approaching coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21111012
Cocos Island 1 11010011
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 4 22111012
Learmonth 3 21111011
Alice Springs 2 10011012
Norfolk Island - --------
Gingin 3 21111011
Camden 4 21111022
Canberra 1 10001011
Launceston 4 21112022
Hobart 3 11111012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10002001
Casey 12 44320113
Mawson 10 42211124
Davis 10 42321123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0011 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 7 Quiet
16 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 14 December. For UT
day 15 December, the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at quiet levels and occasionally may reach unsettled levels.
On UT 16 December, magnetic conditions could reach active to
minor storms levels caused by the corotation interaction region
(CIR) associated with the equatorial coronal hole, which soon
will be reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed in all regions. The outlook for today, 15 December,
is for the MUFs to remain near monthly predicted levels over
most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed across Aus/NZ regions
on UT day 14 December. Incidence of Sporadic E blanketing were
less frequent on UT day 14 December compared to the previous
UT day (13 Dec). The two day outlook (15-16 Dec) is for the MUFs
to remain near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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