[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 16 10:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 15 December, 
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region 
on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04W22) and it remains relatively 
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is 
expected for the next three days (16- 18 Dec), with a weak chance 
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in 
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 15 Dec. The solar wind 
speed during UT day 15 December ranged from 350 km/s to 550 km/s. 
The short-lived enhancements in the solar wind between 15/0800 
UT and 15/2200 UT is possibly in response to the small equatorial 
southern hemisphere coronal hole. The current solar wind speed 
(15/2300 UT) is 370 km/s. During the UT day 15 December, the 
IMF Bt ranged from 3 nT and 10 nT and the Bz component of IMF 
was between -8 nT and 8 nT. The outlook for today (16 Dec) for 
the solar wind speed to remain mostly near background levels. 
>From late UT day 16 Dec or thereabout, the solar wind speed is 
expected to increase again as a recurrent equatorial positive 
polarity coronal hole reaches geoeffective location on the solar 
disk. The STEREO satellite observed solar winds in excess of 
550 km/s associated with the approaching coronal hole. Similar 
solar wind intensity levels are expected to occur at earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   10122212
      Cocos Island         2   10011111
      Darwin               4   10122212
      Townsville           5   11122222
      Learmonth            6   10122223
      Alice Springs        4   10122212
      Norfolk Island       -   --------
      Gingin               4   20022212
      Camden               8   11233222
      Canberra             2   00012111
      Launceston           5   1-122222
      Hobart               5   11122212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   00012011
      Casey               13   34432112
      Mawson               7   21223122
      Davis                8   23322112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   2000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec     8    Mostly Quiet and may reach active levels by the 
                end of UT day
17 Dec    20    Active
18 Dec    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for 17-18 Dec. Magnetic conditions were mostly 
at quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 
15 December. For UT day 16 December, the magnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly at quiet levels and may reach active levels 
by the end of the UT day. On UT 17 December, magnetic conditions 
could reach active to minor storms levels caused by the corotation 
interaction region (CIR) associated with the equatorial coronal 
hole, which soon will be reaching geoeffective location on the 
solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs 
were observed in all regions. The outlook for today, 16 December, 
is for the MUFs to remain near monthly predicted levels over 
most regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec    10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec   -20    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs 
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 15 December. Incidence 
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian 
regions. The two day outlook (16-17 Dec) is for the MUFs to remain 
near monthly predicted levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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