[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 14 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 13 December,
with only one weak B-class flare (B1.2). There is currently one
numbered solar regions on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04E04)
and it remains relatively quiet and stable. Very low levels of
solar flare activity is expected for the next three days (14-
16 Dec), with a weak chance of C-class flares. No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day
13 Dec. The solar wind speed during UT day 13 December declined
from ~500 km/s at beginning of the UT day to 450 km/s at the
time of writing this report (13/2300 UT). This is indicative
that the coronal hole effects are now waning. During the UT day
13 December, the IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT. The two day outlook
(14-15 Dec) for the solar wind speed to decline further as the
effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 11222121
Cocos Island 2 10111120
Darwin 3 10112111
Townsville 5 21221121
Learmonth 5 21221121
Alice Springs 3 10211111
Norfolk Island 3 11------
Gingin 4 20122121
Camden 5 11222121
Canberra 1 10111010
Launceston 5 21222121
Hobart 5 21222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 11133210
Casey 19 54432232
Mawson 18 33323353
Davis 15 33433332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2222 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 13 December. Unsettled
to active magnetic conditions were observed over the Australian
Antarctic region. The disturbed magnetic conditions in high latitude
regions are in response to the moderately elevated solar winds
emanating from the positive polarity coronal hole. For 14 December,
the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels
and at times reaching unsettled levels, as the coronal hole effects
wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and
mid latitude southern hemisphere locations on 13 December. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
in high and mid latitude southern hemisphere regions are possible
today, 14 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 12 December
and is current for 13-14 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 13 December. Sporadic
E blanketing were observed at several low and mid latitude locations.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are possible in the region from 14 to 15 December. These depression
are the aftermath of disturbed conditions associated with the
coronal hole and as well as the prolonged very low solar activity
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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