[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 26 09:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Today's
largest event was a C5.5 flare at 0727 UT from region 2672 (N07E19).
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 380 km/s to 350 km/s during the UT day today (25 August)
while Bz varied mostly between +/-4 nT. Bt stayed mostly between
4 and 6 nT during this time. Solar wind stream is expected to
remain at the current normal levels for the next three days (26
to 28 August). Low to moderate solar activity is expected over
the next three days with further C-class events possible and
the chance of M-class activity on all these days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 1 01111001
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 02112101
Learmonth 3 11122101
Alice Springs 2 01112001
Norfolk Island 3 12212000
Culgoora 3 11112101
Gingin 3 11112101
Camden 3 11122101
Launceston 3 11122101
Hobart 3 01122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 10123100
Casey 7 23322101
Mawson 18 13332126
Davis 11 13432113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 14 4443 3101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 5 Quiet
27 Aug 5 Quiet
28 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels in Australian
regions through the UT day 25 August. Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity are expected to continue for the next 3 days (26 to
28 August).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours (UT day 25 August) with some periods
of minor depressions in the low latitude regions. Periods of
minor MUF enhancements were observed in the Antarctic regions
on this day. Nearly normal HF conditions are expected for the
next 3 days (26 to 28 August).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours (UT day 25
August) with some periods of minor depressions in the northern
regions. Periods of minor MUF enhancements were observed in the
Antarctic regions on this day. Nearly normal HF conditions are
expected in the regions for the next 3 days (26 to 28 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: 1.2E-07
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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