[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 25 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Some
B-class and two C-class flares were observed from region 2641,
the largest one being a C3.0 flare at 0037 UT. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 450
km/s to 360 km/s during the UT day today (24 August) while Bz
stayed mostly negative up to around -5nT during the first half
of the day and mostly positive up to +4nT during the second half
of the day. Solar wind speed is expected to further decline over
the next 24 hours. Low to moderate solar activity is expected
over the next three days (25 to 27 August) with further C-class
events possible and the chance of M-class activity on all these
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 23323200
Cocos Island 3 12-12200
Darwin 5 12213201
Townsville 9 23323301
Learmonth 7 22223300
Alice Springs 7 12323300
Norfolk Island 7 23322200
Culgoora 9 2332320-
Gingin 7 12323300
Camden 8 23323200
Launceston 11 23433300
Hobart 10 13433200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 30 15556300
Casey 8 23323200
Mawson 20 36443100
Davis 10 33432200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 29 3543 5453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug 6 Quiet
27 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: As anticipated, geomagnetic activity showed a gradual
decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels through the UT day
24 August. Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
on 25 August and quiet levels on 26 and 27 August may be expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor enhancements over the last 24 hours
(UT day 24 August). Some periods of minor MUF depressions were
also observed in some mid-latitude regions. Nearly normal HF
conditions are expected for the next 3 days (25 to 27 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor enhancements in the Aus/NZ region
over the last 24 hours (UT day 24 August). Some periods of minor
MUF depressions were also observed in the Southern Australian
regions. Nearly normal HF conditions are expected in the regions
for the next 3 days (25 to 27 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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