[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 August 17 issued 2333 UT on 26 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 27 09:33:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Regions 2671 and 2672 produced a few B-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last
24 hours. Today (UT day 26 August) solar wind speed varied between
320 km/s and 360 km/s by 1600 UT and then increased to ~400 km/s.
Solar wind again slowed down to the speeds of nearly 420 km/s
by 2300 UT. Bz varied mostly between +/-4 nT today, whereas Bt
stayed mostly between 4 and 6 nT during this time. Solar wind
stream is expected to remain mostly at the current normal levels
for the next three days (27 to 29 August) with a small possibility
of minor enhancements on 28 and 29 August. Very low to low levels
of solar activity may be expected over the next three days with
further C-class events possible and a slight chance of M-class
activity on all these days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 01101200
Cocos Island 2 01111210
Darwin 3 11101211
Townsville 3 11101211
Learmonth 2 01201210
Alice Springs 2 11101200
Norfolk Island 0 00100100
Culgoora 2 01101200
Gingin 1 00101200
Camden 2 01101200
Launceston 3 11101301
Hobart 1 00101200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000100
Casey 5 13211210
Mawson 9 22300143
Davis 10 13411141
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1111 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 5 Quiet
28 Aug 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
29 Aug 8 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels in Australian
regions through the UT day 25 August. Quiet levels of geomagnetic
activity are expected to continue for the next 3 days (27 to
29 August) with a small possibility of minor enhancements to
isolated unsettled periods on 28 and 29 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours (UT day 26 August) with
some periods of minor depressions in some low latitude regions.
Nearly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days
(27 to 29 August).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours (UT
day 26 August) with some periods of minor depressions in the
northern regions. Nearly normal HF conditions are expected in
the regions for the next 3 days (27 to 29 August).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 27600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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