[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 09 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 10 09:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 9 August,
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (10-12 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 9 August. The solar wind
speed varied between 400 km/s to 460 km/s, currently around 420
km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 2-7 nT over the last 24 hours.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -4/+5 nT. The
solar wind is expected to continue to weaken over the next UT
day, 10 August. The solar wind is expected to strengthen late
11 August or early 12 August with the arrival of high speed solar
wind streams from two negative polarity coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 2 11111101
Learmonth 3 11111111
Alice Springs 2 01211001
Norfolk Island 2 22110000
Culgoora 2 11111100
Gingin 2 11100111
Camden 1 11111000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 01112110
Hobart 1 00111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 6 23221111
Mawson 11 11222135
Davis 9 12321224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 5 Quiet
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
12 Aug 14 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 9 August. Mainly Quiet to
Unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. During
the next UT day (10 August) the geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels with a chance of Unsettled conditions.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected late on 11 August,
continuing to 12 August, with a slight chance of isolated periods
of Active levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug -1 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly depressed
MUFs were also observed in the Northern Australian region during
the local day and in the Cocos Island Region during the local
day and night. Periods of sporadic E were observed throughout
the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are
expected to remain near monthly predicted values during the next
two UT days, 10-11 August but may become depressed on 12 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 224000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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