[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 9 09:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 8 August,
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (9-11 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 8 August. The solar wind
speed decreased from 480 km/s to 400 km/s, due to the waning
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. The IMF Bt varied between
2-5 nT over the last 24 hours, currently around 4 nT. The Bz
component of the IMF fluctuated between -4/+4 nT. The solar wind
is expected to continue to weaken over the next 3 days, with
a weak enhancement possible on 9 August due to a small positive
polarity CH HSS. The solar wind is expected to strengthen on
11-12 August with the arrival of high speed solar wind streams
from two negative polarity coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 2 11101200
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 12102111
Learmonth 4 11112211
Alice Springs 1 11101100
Norfolk Island 1 10011010
Culgoora 2 11001111
Gingin 3 11101211
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 1 01001100
Launceston 4 11112212
Hobart 3 01012211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00011111
Casey 6 22211311
Mawson 10 22213431
Davis 7 11223231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1222 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of isolated
Active periods
10 Aug 5 Quiet
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of isolated
Active periods
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 8 August. Quiet to Active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. During the
next 3 UT days (9-11 August) the geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with a slight chance
of isolated periods of Active levels possible on 9 August. Unsettled
to Active conditions may occur late on 11 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly depressed
MUFs were also observed in the Northern Australian region during
the local day. Periods of sporadic E were observed throughout
the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are
expected to remain near monthly predicted values during the next
three UT days, 9-11 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 276000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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