[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 8 09:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 7 August,
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (8-10 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 7 August. The solar wind
speed decreased from 590 km/s to 470 km/s, due to the waning
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. The IMF Bt decreased
from 4 nT to 2 nT over the last 24 hours, currently around 3
nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and
+2 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue to weaken, with
a weak enhancement possible on 8 August due to another positive
polarity CH HSS.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12222000
Cocos Island 3 11222100
Darwin 4 11222101
Townsville 5 12222111
Learmonth 3 11222000
Alice Springs 4 12222001
Norfolk Island 4 12222001
Culgoora 3 12222000
Gingin 3 11222100
Camden 4 12222001
Canberra 3 01222000
Launceston 5 12223100
Hobart 3 01222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 00223000
Casey 8 23432000
Mawson 15 23344133
Davis 14 23444111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 3324 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active levels
possible
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Aug 6 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 7 August. Quiet to Active
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. During the
next 3 UT days (8-10 August) the geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels, with isolated periods
of Active levels possible on 8 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly depressed
MUFs were also observed in the Northern Australian region during
the local day. Periods of sporadic E were observed throughout
the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are
expected to remain near monthly predicted values during the next
three UT days, 8-10 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 626 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 408000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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