[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 7 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 6 August,
with no C-class flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot
region on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days (7-9 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 6 August. The solar wind
speed was at very high levels during the last 24 hours, fluctuating
between 700 km/s and 580 km/s and slowly decreasing on average.
This elevated wind speed is caused by the high speed stream emanating
from the positive polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt was mostly
steady near 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF
fluctuated between -5 nT and +5 nT. The solar wind is expected
to remain at elevated levels due to persisting coronal hole effects.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
06/1315UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 32333122
Cocos Island - --------
Darwin 9 32233122
Townsville 11 33333122
Learmonth 11 33333221
Norfolk Island 7 32232111
Culgoora 9 32332122
Gingin 10 22233232
Camden 13 33343122
Canberra 7 22232121
Launceston 15 33353122
Hobart 12 32343122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 14 22254122
Casey 16 44433222
Mawson 30 5455333-
Davis 34 64443236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 74 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 16 3432 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly near quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 6 August.
Active to major storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. These disturbed conditions were due to the high speed
solar wind stream emanating from the positive polarity coronal
hole. During the next 3 UT days (7-9 August) the geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated periods with active levels are possible on 7 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild
depression were observed in the mid and high latitude regions
of the Northern Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected
for 7-9 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly depressed
MUFs were also observed in the Northern Australian region during
local day. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected to remain
near monthly predicted values during the next three UT days,
7-9 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 667 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 171000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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