[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 17 issued 0333 UT on 06 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 6 13:33:55 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
SWS APOLOGIES FOR THE LATE ISSUSE OF THE DAILY REPORT. THIS IS DUE TO COMPUTURE
FAILURES IN OUR FORECASTING CENTRE.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 5 August, 
with no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region 
on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days (6 - 8 August) with a 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO imagery for the UT day 5 August. The solar 
winds were at very high levels during the last 24 hours, fluctuating 
between 650 km/s and 750 km/s. These elevated winds are caused 
by high speed streams emanating from a positive polarity coronal 
hole. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 5 nT during the UT day. 
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -3 nT and +3 nT. 
The two day outlook (6-7 August) is for the solar winds to remain 
at elevated levels as the coronal hole effects are expected to 
persist for few more days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23323332
      Cocos Island         5   122-----
      Darwin               7   23222221
      Townsville          11   23313332
      Learmonth           12   23323332
      Norfolk Island       8   23312222
      Gingin              12   22324332
      Camden              12   23323332
      Canberra             9   13312331
      Launceston          14   23423333
      Hobart              14   23433332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    21   25434432
      Casey               34   44324663
      Mawson              54   66544565
      Davis               55   44543676

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             22   3444 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug    11    Unsettled
07 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly near unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 5 August. Active 
to minor storms conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. 
These disturbed conditions were due to high speed solar wind 
streams emanating from the positive polarity coronal hole. During 
the next UT day, 6 August, the geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at unsettled levels with isolated periods with active 
levels

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild 
depression were observed in the mid and high latitude regions 
of the Northern Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected 
to today, 6 August.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly enhanced 
MUFs were also observed in the Southern Australian region during 
local night. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected to 
remain near monthly predicted values during the next three UT 
days, 5-7 August. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 5 August 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 650 km/sec  Density:   12.0 p/cc  Temp:   545000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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