[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 10 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 11 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 10 August,
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (11-13 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 10 August. The solar
wind speed varied between 390 km/s to 440 km/s, currently around
380 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between around 2-5.6 nT over the
last 24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between
-4/+4 nT. The solar wind is expected to strengthen late 11 August
or early 12 August with the arrival of high speed solar wind
streams from two negative polarity coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111100
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 12211101
Townsville 3 12111101
Learmonth 1 01111100
Alice Springs 2 02111100
Norfolk Island 3 22121001
Culgoora 2 01121001
Gingin 1 01111100
Camden 2 11121100
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 2 11121100
Hobart 2 00121100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 01130000
Casey 7 23312201
Mawson 20 13334116
Davis 13 14333104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1021 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of isolated
Active periods
12 Aug 14 Quiet to Active
13 Aug 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 10 August. Mainly Quiet
to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
with a chance of Unsettled conditions early in the next UT day,
11 August. Quiet to Unsettled conditions, with the chance of
isolated periods of Active levels, are expected late on 11 August,
or early 12 August. Quiet to Active conditions are expected on
12-13 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
13 Aug -1 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Periods of sporadic
E were observed throughout the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in
the Australian/NZ region are expected to remain near monthly
predicted values during the next UT day, 11 August, but may have
minor depressions on 12-13 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 417 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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