[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 23 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Apr 24 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 23 April,
with only B-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days (24-26 April) with a chance of
C-class flares and a very weak chance of M-class flares. An eruptive
filament was observed in the northeast quadrant (N12E39) at 23/0526
UT. This filament is probably associated with a CME which is
first visible at 23/0600 UT, pending further analysis. The solar
wind speed was at very high levels, ranging from 700 km/s to
750 km/s, throughout the UT day, due to high speed streams from
the recurrent negative polarity coronal hole now taking geoeffective
location on the solar disk. The IMF Bt fluctuated between 5 nT
and 10 nT during the UT day. The Bz component varied between
-7 nT and +7 nT, with prolonged periods of southward Bz. The
two day outlook (24-25 April) is for the solar winds to remain
enhanced in response to the persisting effects of the coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 26 33555332
Cocos Island 17 324-4432
Darwin 16 23444322
Learmonth 28 33555433
Alice Springs 24 33554333
Norfolk Island 21 33554222
Culgoora 30 33655332
Gingin 33 43555533
Camden 31 33655333
Canberra 20 33544232
Launceston 37 44655443
Hobart 31 33655432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
Macquarie Island 67 43767644
Casey 22 44444333
Mawson 68 55654676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 108 (Major storm)
Canberra 98 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 44
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 37
Planetary 61 6756 6545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 32 Active to Minor Storm
25 Apr 25 Active
26 Apr 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 21 April and
is current for 22-24 Apr. Magnetic conditions were from quiet
to minor storm levels across the Australian region during the
UT day, 23 April. These disturbed magnetic conditions are thought
to be due to high speed streams from a recurrent, negative polarity
coronal hole. Mostly active to minor storm conditions are expected
for the UT days 24-26 April in response to the coronal hole effects.
Isolated major storm levels are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the monthly predicted
values on the UT day 23 April. During 24 April MUFs are expected
decrease, still remaining near predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
35%
25 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
26 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: For the UT day, 23 April, MUFs over the Australian region
were mostly at enhanced levels and near the monthly predicted
value. Mild depressions were also observed over the Southern
Australian region. The outlook for the next two days (24 and
25 April) is for MUF levels to drop, but the MUFs are expected
to remain near the predicted monthly levels. The degradations
of MUFs are due to the storm induced ionospheric depression,
which is expected to spread equatorwards from the polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 692 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 591000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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