[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Apr 25 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 24 April,
with no notable flares. Very low levels of solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days (25-27 April) with chance of
C-class flares. An eruptive filament was observed in the northeast
quadrant (N36E32) at 24/0200 UT. It has triggered a CME which
is first visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery starting at
approximately 24/0300 UT. Further information on the possible
impact of this CME on earth will be given after the completion
of the model runs. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed
had declined gradually from 750 km/s at the beginning of the
UT day to 600 km/s by the end of UT day. This is indicative of
the beginning of the waning effects of the recurrent negative
polarity coronal hole. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 6 nT
during the UT day. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and
+5 nT. The two day outlook (25-26 April) is for the solar winds
to gradually trend toward nominal levels as the coronal hole
effects begin to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 23343232
Cocos Island 9 --232232
Darwin 12 23343122
Learmonth 19 33353333
Alice Springs 13 23343232
Norfolk Island 11 23342222
Culgoora 16 23353232
Gingin 18 23353333
Camden 16 23353232
Canberra 10 22342122
Launceston 19 33353333
Hobart 17 23453232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 36 33564552
Casey 19 44433333
Mawson 70 56553775
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35 4555 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 20 Active
26 Apr 16 Active
27 Apr 16 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were from quiet to active levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 24 April. These
disturbed magnetic conditions were caused by high speed streams
from a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. Mostly unsettled
to active conditions are expected for the UT days 25-26 April
in response to the coronal hole effects. Isolated minor storm
levels are possible on 25 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the
UT day 24 April. During 25 April MUFs are expected decrease,
still remaining near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 24 April, MUFs over the Australian region
were near the monthly predicted value. Mild depressions were
also observed over the Southern Australian region. The outlook
for the next two days (25 and 26 April) is for MUF levels to
drop, but the MUFs are expected to remain near the predicted
monthly levels. The degradations of MUFs are due to the storm
induced ionospheric depression, which is expected to spread equatorwards
from the polar regions. MUFs to expect recover from 27 April
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 727 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 683000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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