[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 22 09:30:16 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 21 April. 
A CME was observed in the available LASCO imagery at 20/2212 
UT. The CME seems to be related to a disappearing solar filament 
observed in the northeast quadrant at 20/2026 UT and is pending 
for further analysis. Expect Very Low to Low solar activity with 
a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three UT days. 
The solar wind speed was gradually decreasing from 550 km/s to 
450 km/s observed at 21/1120 UT, with the IMF Bt varying in the 
range 4-5 nT without significant periods with negative Bz. Then 
a shock wave was observed with an abrupt increase in the velocity 
(up to 520 km/s), plasma density, and magnetic field Bt (up to 
7 nT). This shock wave is probably associated with a CME and 
C5.5 flare observed on 18 April. Then the solar wind was increasing 
and reached 640 km/s at the time of the report. The IMF Bt reached 
its maximum value of 14 nT at 1613 UT, the maximum negative Bz 
was -10 nT. During the next UT day expect enhanced solar wind 
speed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   12102333
      Cocos Island         8   01101433
      Darwin               9   11102433
      Learmonth           14   12203444
      Alice Springs        9   11102433
      Norfolk Island       7   01102333
      Culgoora             8   12102333
      Gingin              10   12103343
      Camden              10   12213333
      Canberra             7   01102333
      Launceston          11   12213343
      Hobart              12   -2203343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    16   12104534
      Casey               13   24312333
      Mawson              32   23222475

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30   5655 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    19    Active
23 Apr    35    Active to Minor Storm
24 Apr    40    Minor Storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 21 April and 
is current for 22-24 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 21 April. Isolated 
Minor to Severe Storm levels were also observed in Antarctica. 
The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain elevated during 
the first half of the UT day 22 April due to the CME arrival; 
isolated minor storm levels are possible. Active to Minor Storm 
is expected for the UT days 23-24 April due to a recurrent coronal 
hole becoming geoeffective. Major storm levels can be observed 
on 23-24 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
23 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
24 Apr      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian 
region with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible, 
particularly over the southern areas of the Australian region 
for the next UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
23 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: For the UT day, 21 April, mostly near predicted monthly 
MUFs were observed over the Australian region. Mildly depressed 
MUFs were observed in the Southern Australian region during local 
day. Near predicted MUFs over the Australian region are expected 
for the next three UT days, 22-24 April. However, moderately 
depressed MUFs can occur in the Southern Australian Region and 
in Antarctica. Near predicted and enhanced MUFs are expected 
for 23 April due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 552 km/sec  Density:   12.8 p/cc  Temp:   433000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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