[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 20 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Apr 21 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 20 April.
No Earth-directed CME was observed in the available LASCO imagery.
Expect Very Low to Low solar activity with a slight chance for
M-class flares over the next three UT days. The solar wind speed
was 500 km/s at the beginning of the UT day, 20 April. Then in
the middle of the day it reached 590-610 km/s and started to
decrease gradually, currently at 550 km/s. The IMF Bt was enhanced
during the first half of the UT day; Bt and Bz reached 12 nT
and -11 nT, respectively. There were a few prolonged periods
with negative Bz. Since 20/1105 UT the IMF returned to its nominal
values, Bt = 4-5 nT. During the next UT day expect enhanced solar
wind speed due to the coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 34344321
Cocos Island 11 33232331
Darwin 15 34334321
Learmonth 20 34444332
Alice Springs 16 34334331
Norfolk Island 18 35344221
Culgoora 16 34344221
Gingin 21 34335432
Camden 18 34345221
Canberra 14 34334221
Launceston 25 35455222
Hobart 20 34445222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 38 36466231
Casey 19 45333332
Mawson 56 57534366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 17 3532 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
22 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr 35 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Active across the
Australian region during the UT day, 20 April. Isolated Minor
Storm levels were also observed. Major to Severe Storm levels
were reached in the Antarctic region. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to decrease gradually to Quiet to Unsettled levels
during the next two UT days as the coronal hole effect wane.
Active to Minor Storm is expected for the UT day 23 April due
to a recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible,
particularly over the southern areas of the Australian region
for the next UT day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
23 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 20 April, mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs were observed over the Australian region. Enhanced MUFs
were also observed during local night in the Northern Australian
Region. Mildly depressed MUFs were observed in the Antarctic
region. Near predicted MUFs over the Australian region are expected
for the next two UT days, 21-22 April. However, moderately depressed
MUFs can occur in the Southern Australian Region and in Antarctica.
Near predicted and enhanced MUFs are expected for 23 April due
to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 190000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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