[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Tue Apr 18 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 20/0 18/0 15/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 17 April. The
largest flare was C2.0, peaking at 17/0247 UT. Expect an increase
in activity, Low to Moderate, over the next three days as anticipated
active region 2644 rotates around the east limb back onto the
Earthside of the solar disc. No Earthward directed CMEs observed
today, based on LASCO C2 imagery up to 17/1824 UT. The solar
wind speed was varied in the vicinity of 290 km/s up to 17/0350
UT, than it increased up to 310-320 km/s. The IMF Bt varied in
the range 4-6 nT. The Bz component of the IMF varied between
+/-4nT, it was predominately negative from 0420 UT to 1345 UT.
On 18-19 April expect the solar wind speed to reach moderate
to strong levels due to a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 00101100
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 2 11101101
Learmonth 1 10101100
Alice Springs 1 00101100
Norfolk Island 1 00200001
Culgoora 1 00101101
Gingin 1 01101100
Camden 1 10101101
Canberra 0 0-100000
Launceston 1 00201100
Hobart 1 00201100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00201000
Casey 5 13311101
Mawson 6 22211113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1022 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 20 Active
19 Apr 20 Active
20 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 April and
is current for 17-18 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet across
the Australian region during the UT day, 17 April. An increase
in geomagnetic activity is expected on 18-19 April due a recurrent
coronal hole becoming geoeffective. Isolated minor storm levels
are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible,
particularly over the southern areas of the Australian region
for the next 2 days due to expected enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 14 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
19 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed in the northern
Australian region during the local day, 17 April. Near predicted
MUFs to Moderately depressed MUFs are expected for the next three
days due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 21600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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