[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon Apr 17 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 88/32 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 16 April.
Expect an increase in activity, Very Low to Moderate, over the
next three days as anticipated active region 2644 rotates around
the east limb back onto the Earthside of the solar disc. No Earthward
directed CMEs observed today, based on LASCO C2 imagery up to
16/1912UT. The solar wind speed varied between 380 to 310 km/s.
The IMF Btotal weakened over the last 24 hours, varying between
5-1 nT. The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-4nT. Expect
the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels for 17 April
as recurrent positive coronal hole appears smaller this rotation
based on SDO 193 angstrom imagery. On 18-19 April expect the
solar wind speed to elevate to strong levels due to a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole becoming geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11120010
Cocos Island 1 11100010
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 3 11121011
Learmonth 1 00110010
Alice Springs 1 11110000
Norfolk Island 1 10120000
Culgoora 2 11120000
Gingin 2 00110120
Camden 2 11120000
Canberra 0 00010000
Launceston 3 11130001
Hobart 1 00120001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00130000
Casey 7 22421111
Mawson 15 23222154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2220 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr 20 Active
19 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 April and
is current for 17-18 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet across
the Australian region during the UT day, 16 April. Expect it
to remain mostly Quiet on the UT day, 17 April. An increase in
geomagnetic activity is expected on 18-19 April due a coronal
hole becoming geo-effective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 14 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Apr 14 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
1510%
19 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed in the northern
Australian region during the local day, 15 April. Near predicted
MUFs to Minor depressed MUFs expected to continue for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 15100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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