[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Apr 16 09:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low to low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 83/24 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 15 April.
Expect Very Low solar activity for today, 16 April. Followed
by a possible increase in solar activity on 17-18 April with
the return of active region 2644. No Earthward directed CMEs
observed today based on LASCO imagery up to 15/2036UT. The solar
wind speed decreased from 375 to 325 km/s. The IMF Btotal ranged
between 6-5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF
varied between +/-5nT. Expect the solar wind speed to remain
at nominal levels for 16 April. On 17-18 April expect the solar
wind speed to elevate to strong levels due to a recurrent positive
polarity coronal hole becoming geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11101110
Cocos Island 2 11111110
Darwin 2 10111101
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 1 00100110
Alice Springs 1 10101110
Norfolk Island 1 10101100
Culgoora 1 10111100
Gingin 2 11101120
Camden 2 11111110
Canberra 1 11101000
Launceston 3 12102110
Hobart 1 11101100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11101100
Casey 4 22211120
Mawson 19 43322254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3422 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 6 Quiet
17 Apr 18 Active
18 Apr 20 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 15 April and
is current for 17-18 Apr. Magnetic conditions were Quiet across
the Australian region during the UT day, 15 April. Expect it
to remain mostly Quiet on the UT day, 16 April. An increase in
geomagnetic activity is expected on 17-18 April due a coronal
hole becoming geo-effective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed in the Australian
region during the local day, 15 April. Near predicted MUFs to
Minor depressed MUFs expected to continue for the next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 16000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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