[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Apr 19 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 18 April. The
largest flares were C3.3 and C5.5, peaking at 18/0941 UT and
18/2010 UT, respectively. The both flares seem to be associated
with a plage near the limb in the northeast quadrant. The flares
are accompanied by coronal type II radio sweeps. The first flare
is also accompanied by a CME, which is first visible at 18/1012
UT and does not seem to have a geoeffective component. For the
second flare the LASCO imagery is not available yet. Expect Low
to Moderate solar activity over the next three days. The solar
wind speed was varied in the vicinity of 310 km/s and the IMF
was steady up to 18/1800 UT, varying in the ranges Bt = 3-5 nT,
Bz = +/-4 nT. Then the solar wind speed and Bt increased due
to a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
The maximum solar wind speed is 355 km/s at the time of the report,
Bt reached 11 nT at 2208 UT with Bz = -11 nT. Expect further
enhancement of the solar wind during the next UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 10111112
Cocos Island 2 11101111
Darwin 3 20111102
Learmonth 3 11111211
Alice Springs 2 10101102
Norfolk Island 1 00011002
Culgoora 3 10111112
Gingin 1 10011110
Camden 3 10112112
Canberra 0 00001001
Launceston 3 01112112
Hobart 3 01012112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00033000
Casey 5 23202012
Mawson 7 42101222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1020 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 20 Active
20 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 18 April. An increase in geomagnetic
activity is expected on 19 April due a recurrent coronal hole
becoming geoeffective. Isolated minor storm levels are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian
region with periods of minor to moderate MUF depressions possible,
particularly over the southern areas of the Australian region
for the next 2 UT days due to expected enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
21 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed in the northern
Australian region during the local day, 18 April. Near predicted
MUFs to Moderately depressed MUFs are expected for the next three
days due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 16900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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