[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 17 issued 2338 UT on 03 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 4 09:38:52 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0105UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M5.8    1429UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     High               High               Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             102/50              96/43

COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, the 
largest event being an M5 X-ray flare from region 2644 (N12W75), 
peaking at 1429/03 UT. A CME associated with this event does 
not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 2645 (S10W37) grew and 
produced several C-class flares. High activity is possible on 
4-5 Apr, with low activity likely 6 Apr, as region 2644 departs 
the solar disk. The solar wind speed declined from around 450 
km/s, currently around 400 km/s, but might reverse this trend 
from late 4-Apr due to coronal hole effects. The IMF total strength 
peaked around 7 nT, currently 3 nT. The Bz component varied between 
+/-3nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112100
      Cocos Island         2   0111----
      Darwin               3   1111----
      Townsville           4   2111----
      Learmonth            2   0111----
      Alice Springs        2   01112100
      Norfolk Island       2   10112000
      Culgoora             2   01112100
      Gingin               3   1111----
      Canberra             1   01011100
      Launceston           5   12123201
      Hobart               2   01022100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   0101----
      Casey                9   2232----
      Mawson               9   21212234

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              73   (Active)
      Canberra            52   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2221 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr     5    Quiet
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were 
quiet on 3-Apr and are likely to remain so on 4-Apr, possibly 
reaching unsettled levels 5-6 Apr due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 3 
April and is current for 3-4 Apr. Some mild MUF depressions were 
observed in the north. MUFs were otherwise near to monthly predicted 
values. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:39%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 504 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   212000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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