[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 17 issued 2337 UT on 04 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Apr 5 09:37:53 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              86/29              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
C-class flares from regions 2644 (N12W89), 2645 (S10W49) and 
2648 (S04E38). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity 
for the next 3 days is expected to be low to moderate. The solar 
wind peaked around 490 km/s after the onset of a coronal hole 
high speed stream, before declining again to around 390 km/s. 
The total IMF strength rose to 16 nT, currently around 12 nT. 
The Bz component was mostly southward for until 10 UT, dipping 
to -14 nT. Since then, it has been mostly northward.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23343113
      Cocos Island         7   13232012
      Darwin              10   23233113
      Townsville          14   33343213
      Learmonth           12   23343113
      Alice Springs       10   23333103
      Norfolk Island      10   23342102
      Culgoora            11   23342113
      Gingin              12   13352202
      Canberra             8   12342102
      Launceston          17   23453213
      Hobart              14   23353103    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    42   24773102
      Casey               16   45331213
      Mawson              30   46643221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1102 2221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were 
at unsettled to active levels 03-12 UT, due to an extended period 
of southward IMF Bz. Storm levels were reached in southern Australia 
and the Antarctic during this period. Australian conditions have 
been quiet since 15 UT. IMF strength remains elevated though, 
so there is a possibility of further disturbance on 5-Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Apr    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 4 
April and is current for 5-7 Apr. Enhanced overnight MUFs were 
observed in the north, with minor daytime depressions. MUFs were 
otherwise near monthly predicted values. Australian region MUFs 
are expected to be near monthly predicted values for the next 
3 days, with possible enhancements on 5-Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:37%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 427 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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