[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 17 issued 2343 UT on 02 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 3 09:43:51 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.3    0803UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M2.3    1301UT  possible   lower  European
  M2.1    1838UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M5.7    2033UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              97/44

COMMENT: High levels of solar activity were observed during the 
last 24 hours. Elevated background x-ray flux continues, currently 
above the C level. Region 2644(N12W52) was the source of four 
M-class flares and region 2645(S10W23) produced several C-class 
flares. Available imagery is currently limited (large data gap) 
and analysis to determine if the flaring activity is associated 
with Earthward directed CMEs is pending receiving more satellite 
imagery however based on the location of events it may have Earth 
direct components. Further analysis of yesterday M4 event at 
01/2148UT from region 2644 showed that it was associated with 
a type IV radio sweep and a CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery 
beginning at 01/2150UT, however is not expected to be geo-effective. 
Region 2645 is the largest, beta_gamma magnetic class and maintains 
high flare potential and region 2644 has increased in length 
and spot count and is now classed as beta -gamma magnetic class, 
expect Moderate solar activity with slight chance of an X-class 
flare over the next three days due to the flaring potential of 
regions 2644 and 2645. As anticipated, the solar wind speeds 
continue decreasing from ~550 km/s at the beginning of the UT 
day to ~450 km/s by the end of the UT day. The IMF Bt was steady 
near 4 nT throughout the UT day. The Bz component varied between 
-4 nT and +2 nT. The solar winds are expected to continue to 
trend towards nominal levels over the next 24 hours as the coronal 
hole effects continue to wane. A small positive coronal hole 
may slightly increase the solar wind speeds on day 2, 04 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212210
      Cocos Island         2   10112200
      Darwin               4   11212201
      Townsville           6   21213211
      Learmonth            5   21213200
      Alice Springs        3   11212200
      Norfolk Island       5   11212222
      Culgoora             3   11212200
      Gingin               6   21213310
      Canberra             3   11212200
      Launceston           8   22323310
      Hobart               6   11213310    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     6   11313210
      Casey                7   32322210
      Mawson              22   53332444

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             14   3243 3422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     7    Mostly Quiet
04 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind 
stream from the recurrent coronal hole has shown further weakening 
through the UT day today, 02 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were 
mostly Quiet in the Australian region with some Unsettled periods. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at Quiet levels 
today 03 Apr and may reach Unsettled to levels day 2, 04 Apr 
due to another small positive polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australia. 
Possible short wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr   11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
Australia on 02 Apr with some minor depressions. Brief periods 
of sporadic-E and Spread F were observed at some locations. Improvement 
in MUFs may be experienced over the next few days due to increased 
X-rays flux. Periods of sporadic-E may be observed in some locations 
during the forecast period. Possible short wave fadeouts over 
the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 599 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   355000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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