[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 April 17 issued 2332 UT on 01 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 2 09:32:45 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.4    2148UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             102/50             100/48

COMMENT: The X-rays flux has gone above the M-levels over the 
UT day ,01 Apr. Several B-class one C3.7 and M4.4 flares were 
observed. One more C-flare is heading towards the peak while 
this report is being written. The M4 flare peaked at 2148UT and 
came from region 2644(N12W52). This region is in a geoeffective 
position and a CME could be associated with the M4 flare, but 
more imagery needs to be available and analysed before taking 
any further conclusions about it. Expect Moderate solar activity 
over the next three days due to the flaring potential of regions 
2644 and 2645. As anticipated, the solar wind speeds decreased 
gradually from ~700 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to ~550 
km/s by the end of the UT day. The IMF Bt was steady near 4 nT 
throughout the UT day. The Bz component varied between -4 nT 
and +2 nT. The solar winds are expected to continue to trend 
towards nominal levels over the next few days as the coronal 
hole effects begin to wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22333422
      Cocos Island         8   21222421
      Darwin              12   22333422
      Townsville          12   22333332
      Learmonth           16   32333522
      Alice Springs       13   22333432
      Norfolk Island      10   22332322
      Culgoora            11   22333322
      Gingin              14   32333432
      Canberra            10   21333321
      Launceston          16   32443332
      Hobart              15   22443421    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    30   42654511
      Casey               18   34343423
      Mawson              42   53443566

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        4   (Quiet)
      Gingin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             25   5545 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr    15    Quiet to Active
03 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind 
stream from the recurrent coronal hole has shown weakening through 
the UT day today, 01 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to 
Unsettled in the Australian region with some Active periods. 
Solar winds associated with the coronal hole are expected to 
continue decreasing over the next few days. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to range mostly from Quiet to Unsettled levels and 
occasionally may reach Active levels in the high latitude regions 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australia.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      15
May      15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across 
Australia on 01 Apr with some minor depressions. Brief periods 
of sporadic-E and Spread F were observed at some locations. Improvement 
in MUFs may be experienced over the next few days due to increased 
X-rays flux. Periods of sporadic-E may be observed in some locations 
during the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 683 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   422000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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