[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 6 09:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 05 September.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced
by AR2585 (now at N08E04). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed was slowly
decreasing from 640 km/s to 530 km/s as coronal hole effects
were diminishing, currently around 550 km/s. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated above nominal levels. However,
the speed is expected to decrease over the UT day of 06 September.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged
between +6/-6 nT during the last 24 hours with Bt varying between
4 and 7 nT and is currently 5 nT. Note that Bz was predominantly
negative from 1450 UT to 1915 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 23332322
Cocos Island 7 22221321
Darwin 9 23321312
Townsville 11 23332322
Learmonth 12 33332322
Alice Springs 9 23322312
Norfolk Island 9 23331222
Gingin 9 22232322
Camden 10 23332222
Canberra 10 23332222
Launceston 13 24342222
Hobart 11 23342222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 28 34462443
Casey 14 34431322
Mawson 24 44442335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24 4443 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 14 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 10 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
over Australia for the UT day, 05 September. In the Antarctic
region isolated Active periods were also observed. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled with possible
isolated Active periods at higher latitudes for the next two
days due to an elevated solar wind speed associated with coronal
holes. Quiet conditions are expected over Australia for 08 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed today due to moderate geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
07 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs to moderate depressions
were observed in the Australian region during the UT day, 05
September. Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed in the Australian/NZ regions for the next two
days. Then a gradual return to the predicted MUFs on day three,
8 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 692 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 946000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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