[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 5 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 04 September.
Note AR2585 (N08E17) continues to produce surges and subflares
observed in H-alpha imagery. Expect solar activity to be Very
Low to Low for the next three days with a slight chance of an
M-class flare. SOHO C2 imagery shows a CME developing on the
southwest limb beginning at 04/1424UT, it does not appear to
be Earthward directed, pending further analysis when more imagery
is available. Solar wind speed was unsteady and slowly decreased
from 750 to 630 km/s during the last 24 hours due to a coronal
hole, currently around 640 km/s. The solar wind is expected to
remain elevated above nominal levels, however there is expected
to be a decrease over the UT day, 05 September. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-5 nT
during the last 24 hours with a Bt varying between 4 and 8 nT
and is currently 4 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 15 23343333
Cocos Island 13 23332333
Darwin 13 23333332
Townsville 15 23343333
Learmonth 19 33444333
Alice Springs 15 23333433
Norfolk Island 13 23333332
Gingin 21 32444443
Camden 18 23443433
Canberra 15 23343333
Launceston 25 33453444
Hobart 19 33443433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Macquarie Island 35 33556444
Casey 25 34434354
Mawson 86 55644786
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 36 4644 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
06 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels with
periods of weak substorming over Australia for the UT day, 04
September. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to
Unsettled with isolated Active periods at higher latitudes for
the next three days due to an elevated solar wind speed associated
with a recurrent coronal hole. The Antarctic region may have
isolated periods of Minor Storm conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed today due to moderate geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
07 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs to moderate depressions
were observed in the Australian region during the UT day, 04
September. Mild to Moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in the Australian/NZ regions
for the next two days. Then a gradual return to the predicted
MUFs on day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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