[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 7 09:30:18 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 93/38 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 06 September.
Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days with a slight chance of an M-class flare which can be produced
by AR2585 (now at N08W10). No Earthward directed CMEs were observed
in available SOHO/LASCO imagery. Solar wind speed was slowly
decreasing from 560 km/s to 490 km/s as coronal hole effects
were diminishing, currently around 500 km/s. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated above nominal levels during the
next 24 hours. However, the speed is expected to decrease over
the UT day of 07 September. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between -5/+3 nT during the last 24 hours
with Bt varying between 4 and 6 nT and is currently 5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22322221
Cocos Island 6 22311221
Darwin 7 22322221
Townsville 9 32322222
Learmonth 10 32332222
Alice Springs 7 22322221
Norfolk Island 7 22322121
Gingin 10 22332232
Camden 7 22322221
Canberra 7 22322221
Launceston 10 32332222
Hobart 7 22322221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 10 22333231
Casey 15 44422223
Mawson 49 34532384
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 17 3533 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 14 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 12 Quiet
09 Sep 10 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels
over Australia for the UT day, 06 September. In the Antarctic
region isolated Active to Minor Storm periods were also observed.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Quiet to Unsettled
with possible isolated Active periods at higher latitudes for
the next day due to an elevated solar wind speed. Quiet conditions
are expected over Australia for 08-09 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected. Mild depressions
may be observed today due to minor geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
08 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly value MUFs to mild depressions
were observed in the Australian region during the UT day, 06
September. Mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed in the Australian/NZ regions during the next
day. Then a gradual return to the predicted MUFs on day two and
three, 08-09 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 582 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 525000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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