[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 October 16 issued 2341 UT on 12 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 13 10:41:27 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Low levels for the UT day,
12 Oct, with a minor C1 class flare from region 2599 (S14W50)
at 1155UT. The three day outlook is for Very Low solar activity
with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery during the last
24 hours. A weak interplanetary shock wave was observed at 2200UT.
The signature included an abrupt increase of the total magnetic
field Bt from 4 nT to 10nT,electron number density, and solar
wind speed from 320 km/s to 419 km/s. During the shock wave the
Bz component varied in the range from 8 nT to -5 nT. This sudden
change in the solar wind parameters had the signature of a CME
that is thought to be associated with the a filament eruption
on 8 Oct. After the shock crossing, Bt gradually decreased, while
the solar wind speed was increasing and is expected to continue
increasing today 13 Oct. An equatorial negative polarity coronal
hole may become geoeffective late day 2,14 Oct resulting in further
increase in the solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 12 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 11010114
Cocos Island 3 11000113
Darwin 4 21110113
Townsville 5 11110114
Learmonth 8 21010115
Alice Springs 5 21000114
Norfolk Island 2 -0000003
Gingin 5 11110114
Camden 4 12011113
Canberra 4 11000014
Launceston 7 22111114
Hobart 3 11001113
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 10000002
Casey 10 43320113
Mawson 18 23213255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
14 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
15 Oct 20 Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region
reached Active levels late UT day 12 Oct due to the passage of
9 Oct CME. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to rise from Active
to Minor storm levels from late 14 Oct due to the expected effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole. There
is strong chance that aurora may be visible on the local nights
of 14 Oct from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be normal to fair today, 13 Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Oct 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mostly
normal in the Australian region with some enhancement at Cocos
Island station during 12 Oct UT. Expected increase in geomagnetic
activity could result in slightly depressed MUF's for mid to
high latitude regions over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 322000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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