[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 12 10:30:28 EST 2016


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels for the UT 
day, 11 Oct, with no notable flares. The three day outlook is 
for Very Low solar activity with a chance of C-class flares. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained 
~~400 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Bz component was mostly 
northwards. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around 
400Km/s today ,12 Oct. An increase in solar wind parameters is 
likely late on 13 Oct due to the possible passage of 9 Oct CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110001
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               2   11110011
      Townsville           2   11111011
      Learmonth            2   11120001
      Alice Springs        1   11110001
      Norfolk Island       0   00110000
      Gingin               1   11110001
      Camden               2   11110011
      Canberra             1   01110011
      Launceston           3   11210012
      Hobart               1   11110001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey               12   24520012
      Mawson               5   22322001

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3231 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct     7    Quiet
13 Oct    15    Quiet to Active
14 Oct    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian region 
on 11 Oct and are expected to remain so today, 12 Oct. Quiet 
to Active conditions from late on 13 Oct due to the possible 
passage of 9 Oct CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected 
to be mostly normal today, 12 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      30
Oct      30
Nov      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mostly 
normal in the Australian region with notable enhancement at Cocos 
Island station during 11 Oct UT. Conditions are expected to be 
similar today, 12 Oct. Possible increase in geomagnetic activity 
late on tomorrow, 13 Oct may result in slightly depressed MUF's 
for mid to high latitude regions for 13-14 Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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