[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 11 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 12 10:30:28 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels for the UT
day, 11 Oct, with no notable flares. The three day outlook is
for Very Low solar activity with a chance of C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained
~~400 km/s during the past 24 hours. The Bz component was mostly
northwards. The solar wind speed is expected to remain around
400Km/s today ,12 Oct. An increase in solar wind parameters is
likely late on 13 Oct due to the possible passage of 9 Oct CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 11110011
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 2 11120001
Alice Springs 1 11110001
Norfolk Island 0 00110000
Gingin 1 11110001
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 1 01110011
Launceston 3 11210012
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 12 24520012
Mawson 5 22322001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3231 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 7 Quiet
13 Oct 15 Quiet to Active
14 Oct 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet in the Australian region
on 11 Oct and are expected to remain so today, 12 Oct. Quiet
to Active conditions from late on 13 Oct due to the possible
passage of 9 Oct CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation are expected
to be mostly normal today, 12 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 35 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation were mostly
normal in the Australian region with notable enhancement at Cocos
Island station during 11 Oct UT. Conditions are expected to be
similar today, 12 Oct. Possible increase in geomagnetic activity
late on tomorrow, 13 Oct may result in slightly depressed MUF's
for mid to high latitude regions for 13-14 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list