[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 16 issued 2330 UT on 10 Oct 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 11 10:30:29 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: The solar activity was at Very Low levels for the UT
day, 10 Oct, with no notable flares. The three day outlook is
for Very Low solar activity with a chance of C-class flares.
The 09 October CME likely associated with a disappearing filament
may contain a geoeffective component that may arrive at Earth
late on Oct 13.The solar wind speed stayed ~400 km/s during the
past 24 hours. The Bz component was mostly neutral until 1200UT
after which Bz had notable southward excursions,reaching a maximum
of-7 nT ~1500UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at ambient
levels for the next two days 11-12 Oct. Possible increase in
solar wind speed late on day three, 13 Oct due to CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22211331
Cocos Island 6 22101330
Darwin 6 22111322
Townsville 7 22111331
Learmonth 8 22212332
Alice Springs 8 22211332
Norfolk Island 5 22211221
Gingin 9 22211342
Camden 8 13212331
Canberra 7 12212331
Launceston 10 23312332
Hobart 8 13212331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 13 12423431
Casey 13 34332232
Mawson 36 54333373
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1121 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Oct 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet in the Australian
region on 10 Oct, with an Unsettled period between 15-18 UT most
likely associated with Bz southward excursions. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 3 days. Possible Active
periods late on 13 Oct due to CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 30
Oct 30
Nov 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
the Australian region on 10 Oct. Mild depressions observed at
times in some locations. Similar conditions may be observed over
the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 313000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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