[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Nov 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 29 10:30:20 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a C1 X-ray flare from region 2611 (N02W88). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. Solar activity is expected to be low over
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed has declined to around
450 km/s. The total IMF strength rose to peak at 7 nT, currently
6 nT. The Bz component varied between -4 to +5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to decline further over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11112222
Cocos Island 5 11101322
Darwin 5 11112222
Townsville 5 11122222
Learmonth 6 11112322
Alice Springs 4 11111222
Norfolk Island 4 10112122
Culgoora 9 21133223
Gingin 5 21112222
Camden 5 21112212
Canberra 4 11112212
Launceston 6 12212222
Hobart 5 12112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 11112320
Casey 15 34432322
Mawson 20 33222355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2233 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions over the Australian region were
quiet on 28-Nov and are expected to remain so for the next 3
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 10
Nov 26
Dec 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
30 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
01 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions to 20% were observed at times in Australia
on 28-Nov, along with periods of sporadic-E, especially in the
central latitude band. Recovery is likely over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 610 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 249000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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